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12月17日，来自University of Cincinati的Hui Guo应邀到我院作题为“What Moves Aggregate Investment (and Net Hiring): Investor Sentiment or Time-Varying Equity Premium?”的学术演讲。学院师生到场交流讨论。
主要内容：Aggregate investment correlates closely with stock market variance and aggregate idiosyncratic variance—direct measures of market risks. These correlations account for its negative relations with future market returns, analyst earnings forecast errors, and profitability and its positive relations with concurrent investor sentiment and net hiring. Our results are robust to various investment measures, including accruals constructed from cash flow statements. Moreover, loadings on lagged variances explain the cross-section of returns on portfolios sorted by investment and profitability. Our findings are consistent with production-based models in which managers choose optimally to increase capital and labor when anticipating lower discount rates.